Confindustria: ‘Production recovers but exports outside the EU decline’

Rome, 20 June (LaPresse) – Italian industrial production recovered in the first quarter and also in April, but exports outside the EU are declining, presumably due to the effect of tariffs, only partially offset by the European market. This is according to Confindustria's monthly flash report. In detail, production increased in April (+1.0%), starting the second quarter on a positive note (+0.4% in the first quarter); however, levels remain depressed after the decline in 2023 and 2024. RTT in April confirmed the recovery of industry in terms of turnover, and the CSC survey showed less pessimism in May. However, the risks from tariffs are high for the sector, and other indicators remain unfavourable in May: the PMI is slightly in contraction territory (49.2 from 49.3), and industrial business confidence is recovering only slightly. In April, Italian exports fell by 2.8% at constant prices, due to the collapse of sales to non-EU countries, while sales to EU markets increased. The front-loading to the US in March for certain specific products had a significant impact: net of this effect, the decline in April is estimated to be less pronounced (-0.6%). Overall, however, Italian exports remained up in the first four months of 2025 (+3.2% compared to the previous four months). In the euro area, uncertainty remained high and confidence was still stagnant in May, at low levels. In April, industry recorded a sharp decline in production (-2.4%), which affected all our main competitors (Germany -1.9%, France -1.4%, Spain -0.9%); the change in the second quarter was therefore negative (-0.4% for the area). In May, all manufacturing PMIs were in recession, with the exception of Spain, which was just above the neutral threshold.